On Sunday 25 October 2026, Brazil decides who will govern the country from January. The run-off pits Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT). The first round on 4 October was close, and its result shows more than the gap between two candidates. It also shows which Congress the winner will have to govern with, how differently the regions vote and how the markets reacted. If you live in Brazil or are planning the move, the official figures are worth a careful look.
What is being elected, whether foreigners may vote and what applies around election day, we explained in detail before the first round, in our piece on the Brazil election 2026. This article is about the result and about what is at stake on Sunday.
The official first-round result
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) finished counting the first round on the morning of 5 October. According to the official TSE data, the candidates won the following shares of the valid votes:
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 56,104,503 | 47.03% |
| Lula | PT | 53,879,538 | 45.16% |
| Augusto Cury | Avante | 3,448,569 | 2.89% |
| Renan Santos | Missão | 2,675,887 | 2.24% |
| Ronaldo Caiado | PSD | 2,605,148 | 2.18% |
| the other seven combined | 587,143 | 0.49% |
That put Flávio Bolsonaro some 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula. Neither of them reached an absolute majority. Under Article 77 of the Brazilian Constitution, only valid votes count for this, so blank and spoiled ballots are left out. If nobody wins more than half, the two front runners meet again on the last Sunday in October, and whoever then has the majority of valid votes is elected.
158,745,502 people were called to vote. 125,275,835 votes were cast, a turnout of 78.92%. So a good fifth of the electorate stayed at home despite compulsory voting. 1.84% of the votes cast were blank and 2.93% were spoiled.
The candidates who together took just over 7.8% are the real unknown for Sunday. Even a small shift among their voters, or a different turnout, could overturn a gap of just under two percentage points.
One country, two maps
The states voted very differently. According to the TSE data, Lula won clearly above all in the North-East, for example in Piauí with 70.99%, in Bahia with 66.17% and in Ceará with 63.29%. Flávio Bolsonaro dominated the South, the Centre-West and the North: Roraima 71.06%, Santa Catarina 66.65%, Mato Grosso 65.15%, Paraná 59.91%. He was also ahead in the populous states of the South-East, with 51.93% in São Paulo, 53.01% in Rio de Janeiro and narrowly in Minas Gerais with 48.24% to 43.33%. In Amapá, only 0.04 percentage points separated the two.
Brazilians abroad voted too. Among them, according to the TSE data for votes cast abroad, Lula led with 47.57% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro with 43.49%.
For newcomers this map is more than statistics. Many people who move to Brazil settle in the South, in Santa Catarina or Rio Grande do Sul, or on the north-east coast. Politically these are two very different worlds, and you notice it in state politics too.
How the run-off works
On Sunday only two names appear on the electronic voting machine, each together with the candidate for vice-president: for Flávio Bolsonaro this is Alfredo Gaspar (PL), according to the TSE registration data, and for Lula it is Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). Under Article 77 of the Constitution, the vice-president is elected automatically together with the president.
The first round showed how quickly the result is known: according to the TSE data, all 499,248 ballot box districts had been fully counted by 12:51 on 5 October, around midday after election day. With only two candidates in the run-off, a similar pace can be expected.
In the unlikely event that one of the two dies, withdraws or is legally barred before the run-off, Article 77 provides that the third-placed candidate from the first round takes their place. If there is a tie for second place, the older candidate goes through. According to the TSE data, Lula was born on 6 October 1945 and Flávio Bolsonaro on 30 April 1981.
The new Congress is already decided
The president was not the only office on the ballot on 4 October. The Chamber of Deputies with its 513 seats and two thirds of the Senate have already been decided. We added up the results of all 27 federal units from the TSE data.
In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL becomes the largest party with 121 seats, ahead of the PT with 70. Next come União Brasil (46), PSD (43), PP and Republicanos (41 each) and MDB (36). In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats were up for election; the other 27 senators stay in office until 2031. Of the 54, 19 went to the PL, 7 to the MDB and 6 to the PT.
That matters for the run-off. Neither the PL nor the PT comes anywhere near a majority on its own. Whoever wins on Sunday will need the parties of the centre to get laws passed. Constitutional amendments even require three fifths of the votes in both chambers. For you this means: major changes of course on tax or immigration cannot be decided on election night. They have to pass a Congress whose composition is already fixed.
Some governors are also elected on Sunday
In most states the governors are already known. According to the TSE data, Tarcísio (Republicanos) in São Paulo, Douglas Ruas (PL) in Rio de Janeiro, Jorginho Mello (PL) in Santa Catarina, Zucco (PL) in Rio Grande do Sul, Sergio Moro (PL) in Paraná and Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) in Bahia, among others, won in the first round.
A second round takes place on 25 October in five states and the Federal District: Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte and Tocantins, plus the Distrito Federal around Brasília. If you live there, Sunday is a double election. Governors often matter more in daily life than you might think: they are responsible for the state police and for the state tax on goods and services, which, as part of the tax reform, will gradually be folded into the new joint levy over the coming years.
How the real reacted
The first trading day after the election brought a marked move. According to the official PTAX reference rate of the central bank, one euro cost 5.8815 reais on the Friday before the election, 2 October. On Monday 5 October it was only 5.5897 reais. In a single day, the real thus became around 5% stronger against the euro. Since then it has given back part of that gain: on 23 October the rate stood at 5.6422 reais per euro. Against the US dollar the picture is the same. The PTAX rate fell from 5.2079 reais per dollar on 1 October to 4.9859 reais on 5 October and stood at 5.0377 reais on 23 October. That matters to anyone who calculates rents, savings or purchase prices in dollars.
The rate itself does not say whether the move is linked to the election result or to other factors. What it means for you is clear, though: if you live on euros or dollars, draw a pension paid in one of them or are buying a property in reais, you have been getting noticeably fewer reais for your money since the start of October. If you want to exchange larger sums, expect stronger swings around the run-off and do not change everything on a single day.
What is decided on Sunday, and what is not
Under Article 82 of the Constitution, the winner takes office on 5 January 2027. That date was set by a constitutional amendment in 2021; previously it was 1 January. Until then, the current government stays in office.
Three areas matter for expats, and in all three the rules are in the law, not in the manifesto.
Residence: The basis for visas and residence permits is the Migration Law 13,445 of 2017. Many details, however, such as income thresholds for certain visas, are set by the government through decrees and ministerial resolutions. A new government can change those faster than a law. Which routes are open today is explained in our guide to the Brazilian residence permit.
Income tax: Since 2026, Law 15,270 has applied, with tax exemption for income up to 5,000 reais a month and a minimum tax on high incomes. A new president would have to change it through Congress. What the rules look like for newcomers today is set out in our piece on tax in Brazil in 2026.
Consumption taxes: The major reform of taxes on goods and services is anchored in the Constitution and runs on a fixed timetable over several years. Here too, it can only be changed with a three-fifths majority in both chambers.
The election changes nothing about how your home country treats you once you live in Brazil. Whether a tax treaty with Brazil applies when you are tax resident there and still receive income from home depends on where you come from:
What you should do now
If you live in Brazil: As a foreign national you may not vote under Article 14 of the Constitution, not even with permanent residence. What else applies to everyone on election day is covered in our preview of the first round. Expect busy streets near polling stations and avoid large rallies in the evening.
If you are planning the move for 2027: A change of government or a further Lula term does not change the laws overnight, but regulations can move faster after 5 January. If you are still planning, keep an eye on the first weeks of the new term before you obtain documents with an expiry date, such as criminal record certificates or certified documents.
If you want to exchange money or buy a property: Spread larger exchanges over several dates and use the central bank's PTAX rate as a neutral benchmark.
An honest overview of costs, visas and drawbacks is in our complete guide to moving to Brazil, and the key facts are on our Brazil country page.